Kausalitas Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Di Indonesia Sejak Implementasi Kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33143/jecs.v6i2.1131Abstrak
AbstrakÂ
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan kausalitas nilai tukar dan inflasi di Indonesia.Periode data penelitian dimulai dari Juli 2005 dimana kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) mulai diterapkan hingga Septemberber 2020. Sejak periode tersebut nilai tukar dan inflasi bergerak sangat fluktuatif. Dari hasil penelitian yang menggunakan model Kausalitas Granger tidak ditemukan hubungan kausalitas diantara kedua variabel selama periode pengujian. Oleh sebab itu, disarankan kepada pengambil kebijakan agar melakukan kebijakan pengetatan moneter (monetary tight policy) dan kehati-hatian dalam menjalankan kebijakan fiskal untuk meredam fluktuasi kedua variabel.Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia juga harus memperkuat koordinasi dalam menstabilkan kondisi perekonomian Indonesia dengan melakukan kebijakan yang mampu meredam ketidakpastian perekonomian global dan harga minyak dunia yang mengakibatkan nilai tukar dan inflasi terus berfluktuasi.
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Kata Kunci: Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF), Kausalitas Granger.
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